3 surprising findings in this year’s Global Risks Report
In the Global Risks Report, state-based armed conflict ranks 3rd as a risk in the next two years. Image: REUTERS/Damian Sanchez TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
- The Global Risk Report 2025 explores the most severe risks faced by the world in the short and long term.
- Risks are divided into the following categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological.
- We examine three surprising findings from this year's report which we must watch out for.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report explores the global risks landscape over the short and long-term. Of the 33 risks included in this years’ Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025, the primary source of original data in the report, what are three surprising findings beyond the top-ranking risks?
1. Is the transformative speed of AI overhyped or underestimated?
In a year that has seen the mass rollout of developments in AI and considerable experimentation by companies and individuals, over 900 experts to the Global Risks Perception Survey from across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society, do not seem particularly concerned about adverse outcomes of AI technologies on a two-year outlook.
In this year’s Global Risks Report, this was ranked 31 out of 33 risks by respondents for the next two years, a decline in two positions since the previous edition of the report. On a 10-year outlook the associated severity jumps to 6th, showing a marked increase in concerns over the long term.
The low risk ranking in the short term raises the question of whether we may be underestimating the speed at which negative impacts from AI might be felt on our societies – or is it indeed a long way off? In this year’s report, we stress that complacency around the risks of such technologies should be avoided given the fast-paced nature of change in the field of AI and its increasing ubiquity.
The risks landscape is inherently interconnected and complex to navigate; while adverse outcomes of AI might rank relatively low in terms of perceived severity in the short term, related risks are already ranking high over this time horizon. Misinformation and disinformation, for the second year running, has been selected as the top risk for the next two years; and as our risk interconnection findings from this year’s survey suggest, adverse outcomes of AI was selected by respondents as a leading influence on fuelling the spread of misleading video, images, voice or text.
2. Are we out of the woods with our economic woes?
Last year’s edition of the Global Risks Report saw inflation and economic downturn as notable new entrants into the top 10 ranking on a two-year outlook, in 7th and 9th respectively. Respondent concerns regarding both risks have since subsided; in this year’s two-year risk ranking, there are no economic risks in the top 10 on either a two-year or 10-year outlook. Inflation has fallen to 29th and economic downturn to 19th, with no stakeholder group selecting either as a top 10 risk.
But there is no room for complacency. If the coming months see a spiral of tariffs and other trade-restricting measures globally, the economic consequences could be significant. Elevated valuations in several asset classes make them more vulnerable to these and other risks. Findings from this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey indicate that there is ongoing respondent concern about debt among government stakeholders; and across stakeholders in the aggregate, there are some upticks in economic risk perceptions, with crime and Illicit economic activity increasing 17 positions to 11th, and concentration of strategic resources at 12th, up 12 positions from last year.
3. Is intrastate violence an overlooked risk?
In a world of deepening divisions across geopolitical and societal lines, respondents are most concerned with state-based armed conflict as the top risk for the year ahead, and in 3rd place over the next two years, with inequality selected as the most interconnected risk in this year’s report.
Despite this bleak outlook, with societies growing more divided amid prolonged and rising geopolitical tensions, it is interesting to note the low ranking of intrastate violence (riots, mass shootings, gang violence, etc.). This risk refers to the use of force that takes place within a country or community, resulting in loss of life, severe injury, or material damage. In the two-year outlook, respondents ranked intrastate violence 24th, a decline of seven positions from last year’s edition, with only 1% of respondents anticipating it will present a material crisis in 2025.
Intrastate violence can be societal or geopolitical in nature, and can be driven or compounded by other risks such as societal polarization, which is ranked 4th in the two-year ranking. Are the risks associated with intrastate violence being overlooked by respondents in the current geopolitical climate, and should this be a risk to watch as we enter 2025? With an unpredictable year ahead in terms of policy changes, further threats to societal cohesion that could unfold, and economic risks that cannot be disregarded, there is potential for a perfect storm of conditions for increased violence within states, not just between them.
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