How interactive 'Scenario Game' helps navigate uncertainty and develop foresight

Uncertainty is an ever-present challenge, amplified by economic instability, climate change and rapid technological advances. Strategic foresight offers a way to navigate this complexity, yet long-term planning is often sidelined as immediate concerns take priority.

One approach to support organizations in dealing with these challenges is so-called scenario planning. Developed at Shell around 50 years ago, it is now an established approach to deal with an uncertain future. However, while the benefits of scenario planning are widely recognized, it is a time consuming and complex process to manage and moderate.

To address this, the Bavarian Foresight-Institute has developed, together with the Technology Foresight unit of armasuisse (Swiss Federal Office for Defence Procurement), the Scenario Game – a practical, interactive tool that enables organizations and individuals to engage with trends and explore multiple plausible futures. Over the past year, this approach has been refined to combine the key benefits of Scenario Planning, such as challenging entrenched mental models and fostering strategic dialogue, with a format that is both time-efficient and engaging.

The Scenario Game is an interactive framework designed to help participants explore plausible futures in a structured, collaborative way. It combines predefined trends to guide discussions about potential developments, making it accessible and thought-provoking. Participants engage with 11 identified technology trends, such as data science and AI, quantum technologies, and immersive technologies, alongside 14 megatrends, including the changing nature of work, a diversity-aware society, and climate change. These trends are individually selected to reflect the most pressing and transformative forces shaping the future.

The game is guided by two step-by-step generic canvases. In the first phase, participants use trend cards to construct one detailed scenario narratives on the first canvas. They are encouraged to explore the interplay of selected trends and consider potential impacts and outcomes. This is thought provoking for a deeper understanding of how these drivers might converge or conflict in the future.

In the second phase, participants map their scenarios onto the second canvas, putting them into one of four archetypes: Continued Growth, Collapse, Transformation, or Discipline. Each archetype represents a distinct type of future, encouraging participants to broaden their perspectives and explore alternative outcomes. Previous research has argued that scenarios are usually developed around the same tonalities, represented here by the four archetypes. The Scenario Game builds on this insight by encouraging participants to not only assign their scenario to one of the archetypes but also to explore how it might unfold within the context of the other archetypes.

By incorporating elements of play, structured analysis, and group collaboration, the Scenario Game transforms foresight into a dynamic and accessible practice for exploring multiple futures. Unlike traditional foresight methods, which can sometimes be abstract and theoretical, the Scenario Game stands out as a practical and engaging tool. By fostering dynamic collaboration, it brings together diverse groups to exchange expertise and perspectives.

This collaborative process enables participants to co-create narratives that are both imaginative and firmly rooted in real-world contexts. With its adaptable methodology and universal design, the Scenario Game can be applied across various sectors, making it a versatile tool for exploring futures. Its hands-on nature encourages active engagement, sparking both creativity and critical thinking. Feedback has consistently highlighted its impact, with participants describing the experience as "insightful, engaging, and fun."

The adaptability of the Scenario Game has been demonstrated in multiple workshops in different settings, where participants praised its ability to bring together perspectives from different industries and facilitate meaningful discussions about future opportunities. One participant observed, "The Scenario Game makes it easier to dedicate time to exploring essential future possibilities."

The Scenario Game’s approach aligns with the Bavarian Foresight-Institute’s mission to make foresight accessible and actionable for a wide audience. By offering the Scenario Game toolkit as a free resource, the Institute encourages organizations, academics, and individuals to explore futures hands-on. This democratization of foresight ensures it is not limited to specialists but becomes a widely accepted practice for managing uncertainty.

Start experimenting with the future. The Scenario Game can be used for a 90-minutes or full-day workshop. Use the material that we provide to explore the future: