4 ways to prevent and manage climate migration

Accelerated climate change is reshaping migration and displacement patterns worldwide. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels and coastal erosion are making many areas uninhabitable, forcing millions to relocate.

By 2050, an estimated 1.2 billion people could be displaced due to climate-related disasters. The scale and frequency of global climate displacement demand immediate and targeted policy intervention. Delays in action only deepen the crisis, pushing affected populations into vicious cycles of extreme poverty, insecurity and further migration.

Human mobility driven by environmental factors is not a new phenomenon but accelerated climate change is now disrupting displacement patterns all across the globe. People affected by climate change may be compelled to relocate when they perceive that staying where they are poses a greater risk than leaving.

Since 2020, the total number of people displaced by climate-induced disasters has increased each year. With climate change acting as a primary catalyst, the number of climate-displaced individuals is expected to continue to rise.

In Somalia, a local monthly temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius resulted in an approximate tenfold (1098%) surge in expected displacement in 2023. This demonstrates how even a small temperature rise can trigger large-scale forced migration.

When displacement is inevitable, it is crucial to recognize its various impacts on people’s lives, peace, stability and economies. This understanding is essential for designing more inclusive and comprehensive response strategies. To address this growing crisis, countries can opt for four pre-emptive measures to tackle global climate migration:

One of the biggest challenges for governments, particularly those with limited resources and governance constraints, is the lack of standardized monitoring and evaluation frameworks to track climate adaptation efforts.

Over 60% of countries with a National Adaptation Plan do not systematically assess its implementation, highlighting a significant gap in evaluating adaptation strategies. Climate vulnerability mapping can help identify high-risk areas, enabling more targeted and effective interventions.

The technique, which uses geospatial tools and data, evaluates how communities and systems are impacted by climate change, focusing on their susceptibility and capacity to cope with adverse effects, including climate variability and extreme events.

The city of Glasgow, Scotland, has a target figure of enhancing the resilience of over 140,000 people in the region by developing and implementing climate vulnerability mapping.

This strategic approach helps identify high-risk areas and vulnerable populations, enabling more effective planning and adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.

Once climate vulnerability mapping identifies the most vulnerable areas, governments must establish and expand early warning systems.

These integrated systems of monitoring, forecasting and assessing hazards, disaster risks and preparedness activities are proven cost-effective disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation measures that have been demonstrated to save lives. However, countries have yet to fully utilize them.

For example, currently, these systems operate in only 24 of the most climate-vulnerable valleys in Northern Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s coastal belt in the southern regions is highly vulnerable to climate displacement due to rising sea levels and a shortage of fresh drinking water.

To mitigate the impacts of climate-induced disasters, early warning systems must be implemented nationwide, particularly in coastal regions where communities face the highest risk.

At last year’s UN Climate Change Conference, UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced that via the Early Warnings for All Initiative, by 2027, the organization is working for every person on Earth to be protected by multi-hazard early warning systems.

A more direct and constructive approach to climate adaptation involves just-in-time cash transfers to vulnerable communities in climate hotspots. In Bangladesh, research shows that households receiving timely cash transfers were 52% less likely to go a day without food compared to those that did not.

Implementing a similar approach as part of a broader climate adaptation strategy can help mitigate the immediate and long-term impacts of displacement and livelihood loss.

Data-driven forecasts can predict extreme weather events, ensuring financial support reaches at-risk households before disasters strike, enhancing their resilience and preparedness.

Financially empowering people naturally minimizes the effects of any climate shock.

Unlike short-term evacuations, planned relocation provides a permanent, more constructive solution for communities at high risk of climate displacement.

Planned relocation can serve as a pre-emptive strategy to prevent future displacement, particularly when areas are highly disaster-prone, too hazardous for human habitation or when climate change impacts are expected to render certain locations unliveable.

It is also necessary when returning to original habitats is no longer feasible. The first step and a prerequisite for undertaking planned relocation is to assess whether it is necessary.

This decision should be based on scientific evidence. In Fiji, for example, 42 villages have been identified for potential relocation in the next five to 10 years due to climate change, with six villages already moved. As extreme weather events intensify, more communities will inevitably require structured relocation plans.

Climate-induced displacement has become a pressing global reality. As extreme weather events and rising temperatures accelerate, millions will be forced to make life-altering decisions about when and where to move.

By prioritizing proactive measures – such as climate vulnerability mapping, early warning systems, cash transfers and planned relocation – governments and the international community can mitigate the human impact of climate migration, protect livelihoods and enhance resilience in vulnerable regions.