We asked 5 economists about long-term economic trends. Here's what they said

In recent years, the global economy has faced a myriad of tests and challenges ranging from geopolitical fragmentation to technological transformations.

Today, various risks to short-term economic stability and growth persist. But what about the long-term trends that remain poised to significantly impact the global economy?

In recent months, the World Economic Forum interviewed leading public and private sector chief economists on what long-term trends are set to transform the global economy.

Here are three trends they identified:

International trade has long been a critical part of the globalized economy. Furthermore, the exchange of goods and services across borders has helped facilitate the rapid development seen in the past century.

“It stands to reason that this is the absolute fundamental pillar of our prosperity,” said Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization.

Today, however, trading relations are increasing intertwined with geopolitical tensions, causing fragmentation in the global economy. The fragmentation, experts say, is being accelerated by the use of tariffs and protectionist policies that split the world economy into competing groups instead of a single connected system.

In 2024, new trade distorting policies among G20 countries outnumbered trade-liberalizing measures by 2,402 to 634, according to the Chief Economists Outlook. The economic divisions have only been heightening in recent months as the US has implemented steep tariffs on major trading partners, kicking off a cycle of tit-for-tat trade restrictions.

Nonetheless, Ossa added that while we the global economy is experiencing some geo-economic fragmentation, “we don't see yet any de-globalisation.”

Across the globe, populations and demographics are changing. Africa and parts of Asia are seeing rapid population growth, while Europe has a negative growth rate.

Such demographic trends affect labour supply — and businesses are increasingly reporting that these shifts are having an impact on the availability of talent. The Future of Jobs Report 2025, for instance, found that 63% of businesses surveyed said that their most significant barrier to growth is the inability to attract the right workers.

“In terms of wealthy countries, you see an ageing demographic where more and more of their working population is heading into retirement,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist and ESG Officer at ADP Research Institute. “But if you look around the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, what you see is a worker population that is growing into itself. Younger workers are becoming more and more a part of the prime working age.”

The Future of Jobs Report 2025 also noted that ongoing demographic shifts, particularly ageing and declining workforces in developed economies, are expected to emerge as a significant driver of skill demand.

Creating a flow of talent between wealthy countries and low- and middle-income nations will be key to advancing economic growth, Richardson added.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the public and private sectors, with generative AI having the potential to add up to $4.4 trillion a year to the global economy by 2040.

“Generative AI is making us rethink the concept of productivity,” said Tomas Castagnino, Managing Director of Economic Research at Accenture Research. “Usually we think about productivity, about producing the same with less or more with the same. I think generative AI is making us think that productivity is more like producing better with less.”

Of the over 1,000 employers surveyed for the Future of Jobs Report 2025, the vast majority (86%) said that they expect AI and information processing technologies to transform their business by 2030. The report adds that generative AI has the potential to enhance human core skills as well as empower less specialized employees to perform a greater range of so-called expert tasks.

Improved productivity is high on the list of AI upsides for businesses and employees, economists say. Moreover, these benefits may become evident even faster than seen with other transformative technologies.

“The view seems to be that the impact of the technology may be a bit more rapid than we saw for computers,” said Paul Gruenwald, Global Chief Economist at S&P Global. “We’re pretty confident we are going to see some sort of improvement coming out of AI.”

Understanding long-term economic trends, experts say, is essential to facilitating sustainable and inclusive growth. Furthermore, analyzing these shifts can help ensure that adequate investments in the global economy to boost resilience in the face of the various challenges and disruptions.

“People don't seem to realize that we really are in the midst of this massive transformation,” Rima Bhatia, Group Economic Advisor of the Gulf International Bank. “We are rethinking the way our industries and sectors should be running. We are reimagining what the future will look like under a more sustained framework.”