Fourth Industrial Revolution
Why AI will not lead to a world without work
The deflationary impact of technology, including AI, will boost incomes and drive new spending and jobs rather than cause technological unemployment.
Paul Swartz
Paul Swartz is a senior economist and executive director in Boston Consulting Group’s New York office. He works within the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute and is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).
Paul previously worked at AB Bernstein (Sanford C. Bernstein), where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul focused on global macroeconomic issues while working at Goldman Sachs, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Bridgewater Associates. He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean's Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.
Paul’s research includes structural, cyclical, and firm-level themes addressing both strategic and tactical challenges for clients. He has contributed to pieces in CFR.org, Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, and other publications.
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Emerging Technologies
观点：我们高估了人工智能的经济效益
技术对生产率增长的影响一直以来都被夸大了。分析人士是否会在生成式人工智能上重蹈覆辙？生产率的巨大转变是由降低成本驱动的。虽然生成式人工智能可以做到这一点，但不应夸大其对宏观经济可能产生的影响；随着成本领先者获益，许多公司将成为输家，但随着技术推动价格下降，真正的赢家将是消费者。
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